Trey Greenwood

September 2, 2015: A Classic Blue-Sky Bust

 

SUMMARY: Corbin Jaeger and I headed toward southern Arizona optimistically, as conditions were primed for a solid monsoon day. After inching south along I-10 toward Tucson, we saw some storms fire up near Oracle, so we raced east along Park Link Road to try to intercept. However, these storms were very short lived; by the time we got within a couple miles of them, they weakened rapidly. We waited patiently near Oro Valley and watched as a lush field of towering cumulus would rise promisingly then disintegrate before our eyes. We stopped for dinner in northern Tucson while quickly realizing that storms should be exploding but were not. We continued to wait patiently, but before long, it became apparent that the day would end up being a bust. In a last ditch effort to see a storm, we raced west toward one of our favorite areas - Indian Route 15 from Chuichu to Santa Rosa - to see if maybe convection was just late to get going. A little anvil off to our north produced one lightning bolt before dying rapidly. The sun then set on a disappointing chase day that was a complete blue-sky bust.

 

CONCLUSION: Blue-sky bust. The best thing we saw all day was a single lightning bolt near Santa Rosa. The rest was dying cumulus towers and blue sky.

 

August 26, 2015: Northern AZ Skies Primed for Rotation

 

SUMMARY: Corbin Jaeger and I headed for Northern Arizona on August 26 in hopes of investigating the northern end of the Mogollon Rim Convergence Zone (MRCZ). The ambient southwesterly flow suggested that the MRCZ would be active, and with some weak wind shear in play, rotating storms were not out of the question. We set our sights on the area just north of Flagstaff near Gray Mountain, an area that produced a supercell with a "likely tornado" according to NWS Flagstaff back on August 9. As we made our way north along I-17, storms began to fire to our north and west. Well east of Cottonwood, we caught sight of ample rising scud underneath the base of a maturing storm to our west. We stopped to take a look at the storm, not wanting to deviate too much from our Gray Mountain target. It continued to produce lots of rising scud; after several minutes, we decided to continue heading north toward the Gray Mountain area. As we did, we saw a tweet from fellow storm chaser Mike Olbinski that the storm we had just left had begun to rotate and produce brief LP supercell structure. We turned around and saw the tail end of it before it disappeared completely; it had very nice LP structure before it died. Disappointed by optimistic, we continued north and were greeted by some developing storms just south of Gray Mountain. These quickly turned into a cluster of strong storms, producing a brief lowering and some hail. These storms continue to boil as they moved off into a fairly unchaseable area to the east of US-89 north of Flagstaff. Unfortunately, the remaining storms appeared to either be "blobbing out" into a rainy mess or were in unchaseable terrain. We headed back toward Flagstaff for dinner, but we finally saw some decent looking storms forming south of Winslow, moving north. So we headed east on I-40; however, the storms just did not cooperate and fizzled out. We decided to continue on toward Meteor Crater to watch the sunset, and we were treated to a beautiful rainbow and sunset over the rolling hills near Meteor Crater before calling it a day.

 

CONCLUSION: Success. Although we missed the majority of the LP supercell near Cottonwood, we saw a solid cluster of storms in our target area. We were left yearning for a little bit more, but we were overall satisfied with the chase.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Strong Storm near Cottonwood

                    Strong Storm near Gray Mountain

 

August 12, 2015: Sleeper Day Dazzles in Southwestern AZ

 

SUMMARY: August 12 was what I like to call a "sleeper" day: a chase day in which the parameters for storms look iffy at first glance but could dazzle if they come together just right, or, in the case of August 12, the day after a big chase day (August 11) when there is often a rogue beast or two somewhere in Arizona. Corbin Jaeger and I had a hunch that today would be a sleeper day, so we headed for the trusty target of Gila Bend. We pulled off on the Vekol Road exit on I-8 (just east of Gila Bend) and waited for storms to initiate in our target area. Strong storms had already fired to our southeast near Santa Rosa, but we became a bit concerned when the skies over our target area were crystal clear without a single cumulus tower to be seen. Corbin and I agreed that it almost looked like the skies underneath an area of strong high pressure; we were somewhat concerned but decided to remain patient. This decision payed off, as storms began to fire south of Gila Bend near Ajo. We headed south on Highway 85 and positioned ourselves on the outskirts of Ajo, just north of the now hail-producing storms. We watched these storms try to produce some interesting structure, but we caught sight of a discrete storm back to our north. Corbin convinced me that we should blast back north to try to catch this discrete cell, so we did. Shortly after we flipped the car around, the storm began showing signs of rotation on radar. Unfortunately, there weren't any roads that would take us toward this storm, so we watched it from Highway 85. It remained fairly stationary and boasted a beautiful, almost corkscrew-esque updraft and visual evidence of hail. This storm quickly gusted out, and we were blasted by strong outflow winds and some blowing dust. The storms near Ajo that we were initially on had also begun to weaken; we suspected that an outflow boundary collision would take place right over us. Outflow boundary collisions have produced some of the most incredible Arizona storms, including the legendary Chuichu supercell of July 8, 2014 (most likely). So we waited patiently at our location, and the sky filled in right in front of us. A hail shaft began to appear a couple miles down the road from us, and the base became extremely ragged with several little lowerings. It appeared to take on high-based supercell characteristics for a few minutes before being shrouded in rain. During this time, fellow chaser Mike Olbinski met up with us at our location. We were forced to retreat to the north due to the rain, so we decided to head west on I-8 in order to possibly try to get ahead of it again and/or wait for new storm development west of Gila Bend. The supercell we had been watching appeared to gust out, as we were greeted by a large wall of dust just ahead of us on I-8. We carefully maneuvered through it; luckily, it was only a decent-size channel of dust and did not obscure our visibility for very long at all. We watched as storms continued to fire to our west; the one we were focused on quickly produced a rain foot, which is a classic sign of a microburst. Our eyes were diverted from these storms for a few minutes, as an absolutely stunning sunset with mammatus dazzled right over our heads. The storms to our west persisted into the evening hours and gave us a great lightning display, which we watched from the Solana Generating Station in Theba. This sleeper day turned into one of the more exciting chases of the season, filled with supercells, amazing lightning, and a stunning sunset.

 

CONCLUSION: Success (+). We gambled on a sleeper day, and it paid off. We remained patient and stuck with out target despite the crystal clear skies; as a result, we were rewarded with a likely supercell, an unbelievable sunset, and a great lightning display near Gila Bend.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Supercell South of Gila Bend

                          Dust Storm and Stunning Sunset West of Gila Bend

 

August 11, 2015: Amazing Chase on Southern AZ Backroads

 

SUMMARY: August 11 started off unlike an ordinary monsoon day: heavy rain in Southern Arizona, and a severe thunderstorm and resultant dust storm bombarding the Phoenix area around 9:30 A.M. This is extremely rare, and morning convection almost always stabilizes the atmosphere enough to suppress storms for the remainder of the day. For several days prior to August 11, Corbin Jaeger and I had ample trouble trying to decide whether to target Northern or Southern Arizona, but we were leaning toward Northern Arizona. However, satellite imagery showed that it was quite cloudy up there, and we were not too keen on the idea of the Phoenix-area morning convection sustaining and ruining the environment up there, as well. There was some clearing starting to occur in the Southern Arizona target, and, despite the morning convection, there were some indications that convection would redevelop across Southern and South-Central Arizona by late afternoon. So we decided to go for broke and head south. After meeting up with fellow chaser Adri Mozeris and her friend near Eloy, we inched south and then waited patiently for storms to fire. There was a strong complex of storms moving northward from Benson that had sustained itself for quite awhile; we decided to try to get in front of this cluster near San Manuel. The only way to get there looked to be a dirt road south out of San Manuel, so we braved the poorly maintained road with few signs of civilization around in order to get in position for these storms. We stopped at an area with a decent view, but the storms to our south quickly dissipated. However, there was a beautiful new updraft base to our west; it almost appeared to consist of rare undulatus asperatus clouds and was an amazing sight. This storm matured and produced an incredible ragged base with lightning. We watched this storm for awhile before noticing some new convection popping up to our northwest. We headed back that way on the old dirt road and eventually came to a stop along Highway 77 near Oracle Junction. These storms matured; the strongest in the cluster quickly produced a solid hail core on radar. It was heading right for the highway a few miles ahead of our position, so we raced southeast along Highway 77, which turned into Highway 79, to get in position to be cored. The core did not disappoint; we were pelted by marble-size hail and strong winds. After the core passed, we continued heading south toward Tucson and were greeted by an incredible lightning show. Noticing that the cluster of storms that we had just intercepted was moving northward toward the Valley and continuing to grow, we decided to head north to try to get in front of it. We raced north amid more unbelievable lightning; however, after a few miles, we saw some storms starting to fire on the south side of Tucson, so we headed back to the Highway 77-Highway 79 junction and waited for a few minutes trying to decide what to do. We finally decided to just blast north and try to get ahead of the massive cluster of storms. However, we were playing catch-up the rest of the chase and were never able to get in front of it. As a result of our indecision, we missed some amazing structure on the leading edge of the cluster. Even so, the absolutely amazing lightning display that dazzled all around us during the entirety of our trip back to the Valley somewhat made up for missing the amazing structure. All in all, it was an awesome chase!

 

CONCLUSION: Success. We saw some great storms on August 11, and we were able to directly intercept a rare Arizona hail core with decent-size hail. Although we missed the amazing structure on the leading edge of the cluster as it headed toward Phoenix, the incredible lightning display made up for it to a degree.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Incredible Southern Arizona Storm Chase

                          Insane Lightning near Oracle (with Slow Motion)

 

August 7, 2015: Gustnado-fest on My First Solo Chase

 

SUMMARY: I decided to head out solo for an impromptu chase on the afternoon of August 7. Some storms were firing up just south of the Valley, so I headed south toward Santan. I pulled over as some storms began to fire up both to my east and southwest. Before long, I was bombarded by gusty winds. Dust began to get kicked up from the arid farmland on both sides of me, and I caught sight of multiple gustnadoes a couple hundred yards to my east and west. I waited to see if new storm development would occur on the leading edge of the cluster to my southwest, but storms that did go up were very short-lived. I headed toward Bapchule to try and get a better view of some storms that were strengthening to my west. I positioned near the St. Peter Mission School in Bapchule and watched as lots of blowing dust began to get kicked up well to my west. Before long, the storms to my east gusted out and produced ample blowing dust at my location. All of a sudden, a large gustnado fired up fifty yards from me. The rotation was very evident, and it maintained itself for a good distance. After that, I called the chase; it was a nice way to end my first solo chase!

 

CONCLUSION: Success. My first solo chase went well, as I was able to see lots of interesting gustnadoes just south of the Valley, which are always cool sights to see.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Blowing Dust and Gustnadoes South of the Valley

 

July 30, 2015: Chasing the California Convergence Zones

 

SUMMARY: Corbin Jaeger and I had planned to head to Southern California to chase the numerous convergence zones out there at least once during the 2015 monsoon season. July 30 looked to be a promising day with ample moisture over Southern California, so we headed west toward the Elsinore Convergence Zone (ECZ) to meet up with fellow chaser Will Wilkens, who lives within the ECZ. We left Phoenix early in the morning; as we made our way into Southern California, we could see towers already starting to fire over the convergence zones in the distance. We raced west and positioned ourselves in Beaumont, CA, to wait for storm initiation. Some pop-up storms were already firing over the mountains near us, but they would fizzle out shortly after they fired up. Before long, we could sense that something just wasn't quite right. Will was concerned, as well; he thought that explosive development should be underway by then but wasn't. Plus, debris clouds from the dying storms over the mountains appeared that they woud inhibit storm development later on in the day. We noticed some strong-looking storms to our north near Twentynine Palms that had been ongoing for some time; after consulting with Will, we all decided to gamble on the Twentynine Palms storms and abandon the ECZ. We blasted toward Twentynine Palms, met up with Will in Yucca Valley, and then continued northeast toward Twentynine Palms. However, the storms completely died before we had a chance to get to them. Will decided to head back toward his house in Lake Elsinore, while we stayed in Twentynine Palms and ate dinner. After we finished, we decided to start heading toward a large cluster of storms between Lake Havasu City and Parker, AZ, so we headed east on Highway 62. However, we were stopped in our tracks by a large dust storm about to engulf the Bullion Mountains to our north. We pulled over and watched as the haboob ate the mountains; it was very cool to see a dust storm somewhere other than in Arizona! We watched the dust storm and the interesting clouds above it for awhile before continuing east toward the storms near the AZ-CA border. At the same time, we watched radar in dismay after an absolute monster storm fired up over Beaumont, exactly where we had been waiting for storms a couple hours earlier. This storm turned into a beast, complete with broad rotation and somewhat of a hook echo on radar. Will was far behind it, as well; he tried to catch up to it but was unable to do so. We all were lamenting at the fact that we had been in the exact spot where it fired up a mere couple of hours before hand. Instead, we caught a rainbow with some anticrepuscular rays on our way home, which were actually very cool to see but nothing like the supercell over Beaumont.

 

CONCLUSION: Bust (+). We came to Southern California to see some amazing storms in the convergence zones, but we made some errors in strategy. I gave this a slight bump above a total "bust" because we didn't go home empty-handed thanks to the cool dust storm, but we missed the grand prize of the day - the Beaumont supercell - by a mere couple of hours.

 

I'd like to say a huge thank you to Will Wilkens for helping us out with our trip to Southern California! He gave us a wealth of information on the convergence zones that helped us immensely on our chase. So a big thank you to Will for all his help; we hope to redeem ourselves in the Southern California convergence zones very soon!

 

CHASE VIDEO: Dust Storm near Twentynine Palms, CA

 

July 29, 2015: Great Storms and a Runaway Chase Vehicle

 

SUMMARY: Corbin Jaeger and I headed out in a Vortex 2-style caravan on July 29. Along with us we had fellow chasers Tori O'Shea, Heidi Collins, and Adri Mozeris. Conditions looked primed for strong storms across Southern Arizona; all the parameters, including a bit of wind shear, looked good for scattered strong to severe storms. We headed south and eventually positioned ourselves just north of the Santa Rita Mountains near Vail. There were some strong storms to our north, but if we went after those, we wouldn't have much chance to head south for new storm development later. Plus, there weren't very many road options that would take us north toward those storms. So we decided to wait patiently to see if some towers to our south would explode. An outflow boundary was heading toward the southern towers, so we felt that we were in a good position. Sure enough, after a few minutes, the towers became full-fledged storms with what looked to be some very faint structure. Fellow Arizona chaser Kevin Rimcoski met up with us at our location, then we blasted south into the Santa Rita Mountains and toward Sonoita. As our view of the storm improved, we were absolutely stunned to see an amazing shelf cloud right in front of us. We raced south and pulled off the road to take in the incredible storm. A man from Texas stopped to ask what we were doing and said, "I used to live in Texas, and this is exactly how the sky was before every tornado." The shelf cloud was fleeting, but after it dissolved, scud continued rapidly rising toward the base. This storm very well could have been a supercell. However, before long, the storm gusted out, so we headed back north toward some rapidly strengthening storms with possible hail just south of Benson. We stopped and met up with fellow chaser Christian Cleary just west of Benson on a deserted road. The road was raised slightly, as it passed over the highway, so there were mildly steep declines on both sides of us. We all got out of our cars to chat about the storms south of Benson. I wanted to check something on my phone, which was still in the car, so I went back to our car to retrieve it. As I reached in to grab my phone, I looked down and saw that the car was slowly rolling toward the decline to our right. I yelled out Corbin's name while trying to stop the car by somehow pushing back on the door frame. That obviously was not working, so I jumped out of the car, and we all watched as it accelerated and shot down the hill. It plowed over a bush before coming to rest a couple feet in front of a chain link fence that could have done some damage to the car. Luckily, the car nor any one of us was injured in the incident, so we were able to laugh it off and be thankful that it did not become more serious. After that little debacle, we decided to punch the core of the storms south of Benson, as they were moving north and crossing the highway just east of us. We intercepted some heavy rain before pulling off in the town of Benson to reevaluate the conditions. We noticed a small, isolated blip on radar just to our east; before long, it became a solid storm with ragged base and lightning. We watched it from a truck stop in Benson for awhile before inching closer to it. However, it fizzled out quickly after we began inching east. We decided to head back toward Tucson and see if any new development would occur outside the blob of rain that had taken shape back to our west. After bumper-to-bumper traffic behind a major accident along I-10, we saw a storm spitting out nice lightning to our southwest near Green Valley. We stopped on the Houghton Road exit of the I-10 and watched the storm for awhile. It produced some amazing lightning and interesting structure at times. We then called it a night and reminisced over our crazy chase day over burgers at Lindy's on 4th in Tucson.

 

SUMMARY: Success. Whenever we stay patient instead of jumping the gun, good things happen; July 29 was no excpetion. Our patience was rewarded with an incredible storm north of Sonoita, as well as a few other solid storms to round out the day.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Incredible Storm (Possible Supercell) near Sonoita

                    Runaway Chase Vehicle

 

July 28, 2015: Interesting Storms in Southern AZ

 

SUMMARY: Corbin Jaeger and I headed toward Southern Arizona on July 28, as parameters looked solid across the area west of Tucson. Storms fired up southeast of Santa Rosa by mid-afternoon, so we headed south on Indian Route 15 toward Santa Rosa to intercept. One storm in particular became a beast just to our southwest, so we positioned on the outskirts of Santa Rosa in order to intercept. We watched the storm begin to produce an apparent hook echo on radar; velocities indicated broad rotation within the storm, as well. We continued to wait as the storm streamed right at us; however, we underestimated how far the storm was away from us and overestimated how fast it was moving. It never was able to make it to us before fizzling out. We attempted to get a better view of the tail end of the storm along Highway 86 south of Santa Rosa, but the storm had already weakened considerably. We reeavaluated the radar and noticed that some strong to severe storms were firing near and just west of Tucson, so we blasted east in order to get a better view of these storms. We came upon a strong storm near Three Points and positioned on the outskirts of the town. It looked like it was producing a lot of small hail, due to its aqua green core, and part of the base was very ragged. Upon review of my time lapse of the base, it appears that there may have been some very weak rotation in it, but it is hard to tell. We watched this storm for awhile as it produced some very nice cloud-to-ground lightning before calling off the chase.

 

CONCLUSION: Semi-success. We were able to get on some good storms today, but our positioning was poor, especially with the first storm south of Santa Rosa. We completely underestimated how far away from us it was and overestimated how fast it was moving, so we missed out on what could have been some supercell structure on the southern end of the storm. What makes it worse is that we could have gotten a good view of the southern end of the storm had we shot south and then east on Highway 86 much, much earlier. The second storm near Three Points salvaged the day slightly, but we are very disappointed with how we played the Santa Rosa storm.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Strong Storm near Three Points

 

July 17, 2015: Teasers Turn into Brief Supercell

 

SUMMARY: Christian Cleary and I targeted the Gila Bend area on July 17, as the setup looked very similar to one of his best chases in which he intercepted a beastly supercell back in August 2014. Forecast models indicated a small area of enhanced instability coincident with a small pocket of low LCL (i.e. cloud base) heights just south of Gila Bend by mid-afternoon. We thought that this could be a combination for supercells, so we headed south. Storms were already ongoing to our west as we approached I-8, so we decided to head to one of our favorite areas to chase - the area between Chuichu and Santa Rosa, famous for the incredible tornadic supercell near Chuichu back in July 2014 - in hopes of an outflow boundary collision or two to create new storms. We positioned near the Border Patrol checkpoint about halfway between Chuichu and Santa Rosa to watch the storms out west. They produced some nice cloud-to-ground lightning and attempted to produce some decent structure, but they fizzled out before they could really become anything special. Some new towers with ragged bases were going up just to our south, so we decided to inch south and see if a boundary from the western storms could possibly enhance them. However, they would produce a quick pulse of rain and then die. One of the towers even produced small hail right on top of us, which caught us off guard, but it too fizzled out quickly. Debris clouds from the initial western storms, as well as these dying towers, covered the sky above us; we weren't hopeful that new storms would be able to fire up in this environment. We headed north for one last shot at a new tower. We stopped along the side of the road just south of Chuichu to reevaluate and to watch the new tower. We saw that the southern storms were beginning to really strengthen nicely, so we raced south in a last-ditch attempt to see something worthwhile. It paid off, as it became evident that the storm right in front of us was a supercell. It began to form a very nice wall cloud; we positioned along Highway 86 just south of Santa Rosa to intercept the amazing storm. It definitely had supercell structure, including some visible layering and lots of scud. It did not last long, however, and quickly became an HP mess. It was very brief, but it was worth the entire day of teasers we endured to see it!

 

CONCLUSION: Success. We stayed patient through the teasers and were able to get on one of the best storms of the day, a supercell just south of Santa Rosa. 

 

CHASE VIDEO: Brief Supercell near Santa Rosa

 

July 15, 2015: Early Initiation Leads Us to Difficult Chase

 

SUMMARY: Corbin Jaeger and I headed for Northeastern Arizona on July 15. Our target was the Mogollon Rim Convergence Zone near Winslow and Holbrook, which was primed to give us solid storms and held the possibility of producing landspouts. We left earlier than normal, around 9:00 AM; however, we were shocked when storms began to fire along the convergence zone at about 9:30 AM! We were very perplexed by this; we knew that storms tend to initiate slightly earlier up north than they do down south, but 9:30 AM initiation caught us off guard and threw us a curveball. We raced north to get to the convergence zone and to try to intercept the storms that had fired before they fizzled out.  We stopped south of Winslow to assess the situation and decided to penetrate the core of the storm along Highway 87. We shot north and were bombarded by heavy rain and very close lightning, some bolts striking no more than maybe one-eighth of a mile from us. Some stronger storms were headed for Holbrook to our east, so we decided to head into Winslow and connect with I-40 East; however, the storms over Winslow caused some major flooding in town, and we were forced to take a detour. Once we got on I-40, traffic was stop-and-go thanks to road construction; we thought we were never going to make it to the Holbrook storms. After an agonizing time in the bumper-to-bumper traffic, we found an exit and turned around to try to intercept some storms moving toward Leupp to our west. We made it to a spot just east of Leupp with a phenomenal view, but the storms fizzled out quickly. We headed into Leupp to get gas, then headed home disappointed.

 

CONCLUSION: Bust. The positive out of our July 15 chase was that we correctly forecast that the Mogollon Rim Convergence Zone would be very active. However, we were caught off guard by the extremely early 9:30 AM initiation and were never able to recover. It put us way behind for the rest of the day, and as a result, we didn't end up seeing anything out of the ordinary.

 

July 14, 2015: Impromptu Chase Leads to Solid Intercept

 

SUMMARY: On the afternoon of July 14, Corbin Jaeger and I headed out toward the Santa Cruz Flats, south of Eloy, AZ, to meet up with fellow chaser Christian Cleary to work on our Dust Devil Project. We wanted to scout out the Santa Cruz Flats and see if it would be the best place to host our field work for the project. However, some pop-up storms fired west of Casa Grande on our way down south, so we decided to take a peek at them and postpone our project work slightly. The first storms were ordinary pulse thunderstorms that quickly went up and then died; after these initial storms fizzled out, we had our eyes on a new storm that had fired up south of Stanfield. We stopped just east of Stanfield and watched the storm spit out lightning bolts and dump heavy rain. It had a very ragged base, as well. After watching it for a few minutes, we headed west on Highway 84 to try to intercept the core of the storm. We positioned ourselves just west of Stanfield, and before long, heavy rain and close lightning battered us. We headed north but quickly returned to our original spot in order to ride out the storm's core. Heavy rain fell on us for a good fifteen minutes before the storm lost its intensity and moved off to the northeast. Our impromptu chase seemingly over, we headed down to the Santa Cruz Flats in order to survey the area before heading to Picacho Peak for dinner. We watched a stunning sunset as we ate our Subway sandwiches. All of a sudden, we saw a very bright flash to our northwest; it appeared that more storms had fired up near Florence and were spitting out positive lightning bolts! We raced west in order to get a better view of the lightning and witnessed several more positive bolts along with some great regular bolts. All in all, our impromptu chase turned out to be a successful one!

 

CONCLUSION: Success. Although we were not out to chase storms and didn't have a game plan for a chase, we were able to successfully intercept a great storm near Stanfield.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Intense Storm near Stanfield

 

July 12, 2015: Strong Storms on Arizona's Plains

 

SUMMARY: July 12 was poised to be a very solid chase day across Northeastern Arizona, as the typical monsoon thunderstorm ingredients were in play, plus a bit of wind shear, as well. My dad and I headed out early on July 12 with Holbrook as our target. As we were making our way up, storms began to fire east of Holbrook toward the AZ-NM border, and they slowly filled in on radar to the west. We stopped off I-40 just east of Holbrook to watch a cluster of strong storms to our south-southeast. Quickly, the leading storm began to show some structure, including evidence of an aqua green hail core and a small lowering that had some interesting motion to it. The cloud-to-ground lightning was incredible, as well. This core of the storm was headed directly for I-40, so we decided to drive east and punch the core. Visibility dropped quickly in the heavy rain, and CG lightning struck all around us. We eventually had to exit the highway, as conditions deteriorated very quickly. Noticing that a new isolated storm was firing up north of where we had positioned ourselves originally, we shot back west toward Holbrook before heading north on Indian Route 77 to try to intercept the storm. This storm had the most massive hail core I have ever seen on an Arizona storm; it was an absolutely incredible sight. We paralleled the storm on IR 77 for awhile before making the decision to try to get in front of it east of Indian Wells. However, when we turned east, the storm quickly dissipated. A new updraft base was forming to our west, so we waited for a few minutes to see if it would become a new storm. At the same time, storms to the south were exploding. The new base never really matured into a full-blown thunderstorm, so we blasted south toward Holbrook to try to intercept the southern storms. After a few minutes, a distinct lowering became visible; it looked very much like a wall cloud. As we inched closer, it became apparent that it was the right edge of a much larger shelf cloud. We got in position east of Holbrook to watch as the shelf cloud inched north, but I felt we were simply too far away. In our attempt to get closer to the storm, we never were able to get in front of it again. Still, it was a nice end to a great day of chasing. However, things turned bittersweet after we rolled up onto the scene of a fatal accident in which children lost their lives. It was very difficult to see the aftermath; praying for all of the families involved.

 

CONCLUSION: Success. We selected the right target area and saw several awesome storms. We were on the only severe thunderstorm of the day in Northern Arizona, which had one of the most amazing, massive hail shafts I have ever seen! Even though we missed out on the shelf cloud with the final storm of the day, it was a successful chase day overall.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Northeastern Arizona Storm Chase

 

July 1, 2015: Distant LP Supercell Structure, But Overall Bust

 

SUMMARY: Corbin Jaeger and I headed north on July 1 in hopes of a repeat of June 30, only this time in the rolling hills of Northern Arizona. However, shortly after we left the Valley, strong storms fired up just west of Flagstaff, one of which even appeared to have broad rotation. We were disappointed, as we knew we still had a long trek to get in position for these storms, which were moving north, making things even more difficult. We finally made it to the area just north of Paulden to wait and see if the southernmost storm would recycle. It had a nice updraft to it, but promptly became less and less appealing. We decided to head east on I-40 toward Flagstaff to see if anything else would recycle or if new storms would fire. They would not; we did see some possible low-precipitation supercell structure well off to our north, but we were too far away to confirm. Defeated, we headed into Flagstaff to have dinner and then head home. Some time after we left Flagstaff for the Valley, we saw an unbelievable bow echo take shape east of Holbrook. We knew there had to be some insane structure on it, but we were just too far out of position to intercept it. So we continued on toward the Valley.

 

CONCLUSION: Bust. We made the right call in terms of a target area, but we simply were way too late to the action. We should have attempted to make a play on the bow echo to our east; in hindsight, I think we may have been able to intercept it and see some amazing structure.

 

June 30, 2015: Insane Supercell Outbreak in Southern AZ

 

SUMMARY: June 30 started out as a normal chase day, only the anticipation for what was to come was through the roof. Ample instability and moisture were forecast over Southern Arizona, and wind shear values were off the charts for Arizona. I have never seen wind shear in Arizona like I saw from about June 27-July 1, especially June 30. Plus, an upper level disturbance was heading right for Southern Arizona, which would provide ample lift. The four ingredients for severe thunderstorms were in play on June 30; honestly, I have never seen a setup like this in my thirteen years in Arizona. This was a low-end Great Plains type setup. Absolutely stoked, I headed out with Corbin Jaeger, Tori O'Shea, and fellow Arizona storm chaser and photographer Adri Mozeris. I remember emphasizing how good June 30 was poised to be, but I did not want to get my hopes up, as Arizona, along with its tendency to produce magic, also has a tendency to disappoint. However, in the back of my mind, I knew this was going to be good day; just how good it turned out to be, I had no idea.

 

Knowing that a large area of Southern Arizona could convectively explode, we wanted to head south and play things by ear. Similar to our June 27 chase, we stopped in Red Rock to reevaluate things. Unlike June 27, however, things continued to look better and better by the moment. Instability was increasing, moisture remained very solid, wind shear was still off the charts, and the nose of the disturbance was inching its way into Southeastern Arizona, placing a bullseye right around the Tucson area. We could see the tilt in the towers that were going up as a result of the incredible wind shear; I have never seen that in Arizona before, only on the Plains. 

 

However, we would have to wait awhile before that bullseye could be realized. So we waited in Red Rock for an hour or so before the first blips began to show up on radar near Oracle. We headed east on Park Link Drive toward Oracle. As we positioned ourselves near Oracle, the original storm we were watching had split; the left split weakened quickly, while the right split became the dominant storm. It showed incredible structure and likely had a rotating updraft, although it was early on in the outbreak. Soon, a severe thunderstorm warning popped up on a storm right over metro Tucson; reports of golf ball and even baseball-size hail rolled in. So we headed south toward Tucson and were greeted by an absolutely gorgeous tilted, rotating updraft right over the south side of Tucson. We raced toward it but knew we were out of position; after about twenty minutes of trailing well behind its stunning tilted updraft, it fizzled out. We were not discouraged, though, as new storms were beginning to fire southeast of Tucson, near Vail. We quickly realized that this storm was going to be insane; as we positioned on a north-south road near Vail, we saw an incredible RFD cut and hail shaft. We were slightly too close to get any good footage of the storm, so we repositioned slightly west. This storm put on an incredible show for the next half hour or hour; it had stunning structure and obvious mid-level rotation. One of the top three best storms I have ever seen in Arizona, hands down.

 

As the sun was setting, we followed the storm west toward Tucson; however, a rare Tornado Warning blared over the radio for a storm off to our southeast, near Sonoita. The public had reported a rotating wall cloud with this tornado-warned storm, so we made a quick u-turn and raced east. Before we could get there, it lost its rotational signature on radar, and the warning was dropped. However, it was tracking northwest, right over the mountains to our south. So we headed down another road near Vail in order to see if it had any remaining structure. Boy, were we in for a treat! By this time, darkness had fallen, but the frequent lightning illuminated an absolutely INSANE, massive, bell-shaped wall cloud right over the mountains just south of us. It was an unbelievable scene. We watched this beast churn just south of us for awhile before it lost its wall cloud. Still, the based remained very ragged, and the lightning remained frequent. We decided to drop south in order to get closer to it in case it recycled. However, the road turned to dirt, and our path was blocked by a flash flood, so we turned back around and headed back toward the I-10 to head east. We headed south on I-19 to try to get in front of it, but all that remained of it was a ragged base and frequent lightning flashes. We stopped in Amado to reevaluate, and then called it a night. Easily the best overall chase day I have ever been on.

 

CONCLUSION: Jackpot. This was, no question, the best overall chase day I have ever been on. We executed our game plan to perfection today; we didn't get antsy and jump the gun on anything. Instead, we stayed patient and were more than rewarded with several insane supercells. While the Chuichu supercell/possible tornado of July 8, 2014 was probably the best storm I have ever seen in Arizona, each storm we saw on June 30 was unbelievable, making it the best overall chase day I have been on, hands down.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Vail Supercell Time Lapse

                    Nighttime Supercells near Vail

 

June 27, 2015: Poised for Supercells, Coated in Dust

 

SUMMARY: June 27 was poised to be a great day of chasing. An area of abnormally high wind shear, a key ingredient in severe storm formation, blanketed the state for several days, with June 27 being the first true solid day where it was in play. This unseasonably high wind shear would play a major role in our insane June 30 chase a few days later. But back to June 27...The SPC had issued a Slight Risk for south-central Arizona. The parameters looked good for supercells across Southern and South-Central Arizona, so Corbin Jaeger and I headed south, a little later than desired, along with fellow Arizona chaser Tori O'Shea. A strong storm fired up well to our east as we headed south on I-10; we knew we'd be out of position if we went after it, and it had shown signs of weakening on radar. So we continued south and eventually stopped in Red Rock to reevaluate. We were very concerned after seeing that lots of convective inhibition (CIN), an effective killer of storm potential, was building into our target area. This made sense, as the earlier storms had all weakened considerably, and a storm that fired up to our west while we were at Red Rock was very pulse-type in nature: a quick burst of heavy rain and lightning before dying out. Debris clouds from the old storms were starting to fill the sky, as well, which was another limiting factor in new storm development. Very disappointed, we headed back north toward the Valley, as we knew that the thunderstorm, let alone supercell, potential was near zero at this point. However, we made on last stop at the Casa Blanca Road exit on the I-10, just east of the town of Casa Blanca, in hopes that outflow boundaries from storms well off to our east would allow new storms to fire in our area. Before that was realized, we caught sight of a nice wall of dust heading our direction, illuminated by the setting sun. We headed a bit west and positioned ourselves just west of the town of Casa Blanca in order to intercept the dust storm. The wall of dust grew more and more well defined as it approached us, and it was beautifully illuminated by the dying light of day. The dust rushed over us, and visibility dropped to a hundred yards or so. It was very hard to stand up in the gusty winds; by my estimation, winds gusted to at least 60 miles per hour at times. It was actually one of the more impressive dust storms I have intercepted; it was a nice surprise to end the day that could have been a blue-sky bust.

 

CONCLUSION: Semi-success. Although we flat out busted on intercepting supercells on June 27, we were able to intercept one of the more impressive dust storms I have experienced. This really saved a day that could have been a total bust.

 

CHASE VIDEO: Dust Storm near Casa Blanca

 

April 23, 2015: Striking Offseason Gold in California

 

SUMMARY: An area of low pressure and associated cold front were forecast to traverse across Southern California and into Arizona on April 23. Corbin Jaeger and I targeted the area between Gila Bend and Yuma, as it appeared that storms could fire up as far west as the Yuma area or as far east as Gila Bend by mid-afternoon. As we were making our way southwest, it appeared that the best ingredients for storms favored Yuma and areas west into Southern California. In fact, storms began to fire just southwest of Yuma in Mexico and along the Mexico-California border. So we stopped in Yuma to decide what to do: wait for storms to fire near Wellton to our east, or go for broke and try to intercept the storms making their way into California. After watching a couple towers near Wellton go up and then die over and over, we decided to gamble on the Southern California storms. We shot west on I-8 and were greeted by a a beautiful storm with a very ragged updraft base. We posted up near an old railroad ghost town called Ogilby and watched as the storm put down heavy rain and lightning while maintaining its incredibly ragged base to our west. After awhile, we shot north in an attempt to get in front of it, but it died out before we could get in position. We continued to head north after friend and fellow chaser Will Wilkens informed us of a possible velocity couplet on a storm well to our north near Palo Verde, CA. However, we knew that we could not catch the possible rotating storm, so we went after some more manageable storms south of Palo Verde and just west of the Cibola National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona. These storms spit out some awesome (mainly cloud-to-cloud) lightning until well after sunset. After dinner in Blythe, we made our way back into Arizona after our first chase in California!

 

CONCLUSION: Success. Our first chase in California went very well, as we saw a few great storms with a ragged updraft base and nice lightning. We made the right gamble by abandoning the less favorable Southwestern Arizona target for the Southern California storms. The incredibly ragged base on the Ogilby storm was definitely one of the best storm bases I've seen outside of monsoon season in the Desert Southwest!

 

CHASE VIDEO: Southeastern California Storm Chase

 

April 14, 2015: Beautiful Sunset Storm

 

SUMMARY: The setup on April 14 was extremely marginal; the SPC and other weather outlets were calling for a very outside chance of storms across Southern Arizona. Although we knew that we probably weren't going to see much, Corbin Jaeger and I headed out toward the Tucson area. Our main goal for this chase was to test out our new live streaming equipment, along with seeing storms. Parameters were very marginal at best, with MLCAPE values around 250 j/kg (barely reaching the threshold for thunderstorm development) and meager moisture to work with. After intercepting a huge dust devil near Eloy, we continued south. Lots of cumulus towers were going up and disintegrating in a matter of minutes; things did not look promising. However, shortly before sunset, a small blip showed up on radar just southeast of Tucson. It soon morphed into a stunning storm with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. The entire storm shone a beautiful orange in the light of the setting sun. We watched this storm for awhile, as it persisted after the sun went down with several bolts of lightning. For a chase in which we did not expect to see much, it turned out to be a great day!

 

CONCLUSION: Success. We were able to meet our two main goals: getting our live stream up and running, and seeing a good storm! Parameters were not very favorable for thunderstorms, but we stayed patient in our target area and were rewarded with a stunning sunset thunderstorm!

 

CHASE VIDEO: Dust Devil Intercept near Eloy

                    Stunning Sunset Thunderstorm near Tucson  

 

March 1-2, 2015: Transient Supercells and Shelf Clouds

 

SUMMARY: Although the SPC and other weather outlets were calling for a widespread rain event with little chance for thunderstorms on March 1, I had a gut feeling that there could be a couple of low-topped, transient supercells in the area near Congress, AZ by mid-afternoon. My dad and I headed toward Highway 93, and after a quick lunch in Wickenburg, we positioned ourselves along Highway 93. Almost immediately, we caught sight of a developing storm whose base was trying to lower. We inched our way toward Congress, parallel to the storm, and it appeared to try to produce a broad wall cloud. A small finger extended from the wall cloud as it moved off toward Congress and Yarnell; it appeared to be a small funnel cloud, but it was very difficult to see if it was rotating or not. This storm quickly “rained itself out” as it moved over the mountains around Yarnell, so we abandoned it and stayed put along Highway 93 just on the southern edge of Congress. Some new storms had formed near Surprise and were racing northward toward our location. As the cluster raced toward us, the base of the storm just to our southwest began to lower and produce somewhat ragged characteristics. There did appear to be a small couplet on radar corresponding to this storm; however, the area along Highway 93 near Congress is in a zone of spotty radar coverage, so it is hard to say whether this was a true couplet or erroneous radar data. Fellow AZ chaser Tori O’Shea met up with us as we were watching this lowered base take shape; we decided to try to get ahead of it, so we headed west along Highway 71 from Congress. The base stayed low as we got in position along Highway 71, but it started to rain heavily. This somewhat obscured the storm, which quickly raced off to our north; we could not catch up with it. As we were re-evaluating conditions and radar, we caught sight of a significant wall cloud moving right at us from the south. It was very persistent, but it was very difficult to tell if it was rotating. Cloud matter continued to form and attach to the wall cloud, which moved rapidly toward us. We watched the lowering for several minutes before it passed over our heads and raced off to the north. With the quick storm movement and lack of road options, we could not follow the storm any farther north. Once again, we re-evaluated conditions and radar, while fellow AZ chasers Bryan Snider and Jerrod Harris met up with us. The atmosphere seemed pretty worked over, but there were some storms trying to fire up near Wickenburg. We all headed back toward Wickenburg, but in a last-ditch effort to try to end the day with something good, my dad and I headed back north into the town of Yarnell to try to intercept some storms with decent reflectivity on radar. However, we just could not catch up with the storms, so we called it a day.

 

March 2 looked to be another marginal setup, with the core of the cold-core low passing over western Arizona during the afternoon. A few cold-core thunderstorms were expected to develop in western Arizona throughout the day. Corbin Jaeger and I once again targeted an area along Highway 93, this time slightly farther northwest of where I targeted on March 1. We thought storms would develop between Wikieup and Kingman by the afternoon. However, after stopping in Wickenburg to reassess conditions and radar at about 2:45 PM, we were surprised to see that almost no convection was beginning to pop up in our target area, but there were some very strong storms forming in extreme southeastern California, southwestern Arizona, and just south of Yuma in Mexico. The parameters in the southern target were not as strong as in the northern target, but we were really concerned by the fact that major convection was not already ongoing in northwestern Arizona, our original target. Thus, we went with our guts instead of with logic and decided to abandon our original target to drop south toward southwestern Arizona. The storms near Yuma were moving northward, so we adjusted our target to Quartzsite. We raced west-southwest along Highway 60 and then on I-10, stopping briefly to take in the stunning scenery and some developing minor convection. As we approached Quartzsite, we saw a couple lightning bolts and a massive rain shaft out of a thunderstorm moving into the town from the south. We decided to head back east in order to stay ahead of it and see some lightning as the storm passed right in front of us. However, our jaws quickly dropped as we saw a shelf cloud beginning to take shape in our rear view mirror. So we stopped along the side of I-10 to watch as the incredible shelf cloud moved toward us. We watched the shelf cloud for several minutes, and after it moved over our heads, we decided to race eastward to get ahead of it once again. It fizzled out as we were driving to our new position; however, it quickly recycled and maintained its amazing structure for several more minutes. As we continued to watch the shelf cloud to our northwest, we caught sight of another storm to our southwest with insane structure illuminated by the gradually setting sun. The original shelf cloud became obscured by rain, so we focused our attention on this new storm, which produced shelf-like structure, some lightning, and a rainbow. We drove east to get closer to the storm, and it maintained its amazing structure for some time. We tried to get ahead of it once again, but we could not get a good view of the structure through the rain. After seeing what we thought may be a small wall cloud several miles basking in the orange glow of the sunset several miles to our south, we headed back home, satisfied with our decision to abandon our original target of northwestern Arizona (which produced absolutely nothing that was chase-able).

 

CONCLUSION: Success. Although both chase days were fairly marginal setups, I was able to see a significant wall cloud and several transient supercell structures on March 1, as well as some of the most incredible storm structure I have ever seen in Arizona on March 2. My confidence in my storm chasing and forecasting abilities grew on both days, as I selected the correct target area on March 1, and Corbin and I made a big gamble on March 2 to abandon our original target area, which paid off immensely.

 

CHASE VIDEO: March 1 Chase - Transient Supercells and Wall Cloud

                    March 2 Chase - Incredible Structure near Quartzsite

 

January 31, 2015: Possible Supercell in a Marginal Setup

 

SUMMARY: First chase of 2015! I was not overly excited about this setup, as I thought that it would likely be a widespread rain event with a couple of embedded thunderstorms. However, I was storm-deprived after a fairly quiet winter, so I thought it would be nice to get the rust off with a chase. We targeted the Tucson area, as there seemed to be the most juice in the atmosphere to get thunderstorms going from Tucson to points south and west. After enduring heavy rain while driving to the Tucson area, we stopped at Picacho Peak to watch as the extremely low cloud deck ambled over the top of a green, lush Picacho Peak. It was a very beautiful sight. After a few minutes, we continued our chase underneath ample gray clouds and moderate rainfall until we reached Tucson. A cluster of rain storms began to form just southwest of Tucson, so we decided to position ourselves in front of it, hoping for maybe a lightning strike or two. However, I noticed a mass of dark, fairly rain-free clouds on the very northeast side of the growing cluster, so we shot slightly east to reposition ourselves in front of this new storm. As we pulled into our new position in Drexel Heights (a suburb on the southwest side of Tucson), the storm quickly got its act together, and its base lowered significantly. Also, a band of clouds was racing into the storm from the north, although the storm was moving in the opposite direction, to the north-northeast. This fast-moving inflow, along with the incredible lowering, gave the storm the look of a supercell. Radar indicated very broad rotation within the storm, although a tight velocity couplet was not apparent; also, it was very hard to see any rotation in the lowering from our position, as the storm began to gradually be obscured by heavy rain. After watching this incredible possible supercell for several minutes, it turned into a high-precipitation beast. I had a feeling that this cluster of storms would produce a shelf cloud on its leading edge, so we raced east in order to get ahead of the cluster. Sure enough, a shelf cloud began to take shape on the leading edge of the cluster, and it had several little fingers and an incredible low, ground-scraping left side. It almost appeared to be a wall cloud ready to drop a funnel. We continued east and stopped near the famous “Bone Yard” at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base to watch the shelf cloud approach. It was moving very rapidly, and it overtook us after a few minutes at our location; we then tried to once again get ahead of the shelf cloud, but it lost its structure as we repositioned on the very southeast side of Tucson. A new storm began to take shape near Vail, so we headed east to try to get in position to intercept it. We positioned ourselves just outside Vail, and the storm appeared to have decent structure and decent returns on radar. However, heavy rain quickly obscured the storm from view, so we decided to head back toward Tucson. Some small cells began to pop up just west of Sahuarita, so we headed south on I-19 to try to intercept them. However, we could not get a good view of the storms, and they appeared to be weakening, so we called the chase.

 

CONCLUSION: Success. Going into the chase, I did not expect to see anything special at all. We saw a possible supercell with inflow, low cloud bases, and a shelf cloud in a very marginal setup, which definitely exceeded expectations. It was a great way to start 2015!

 

CHASE VIDEO: Possible Supercell in South Tucson

                    Dash Cam Time Lapses